In 1997 the wine market declined when the Asian stock market had a market decline. It gave an indication of the global wine market and what lies ahead.
If you believe that globalization will continue, then emerging markets will create new wine-hunting millionaires in different cultures, leading to a constantly increasing market for IGW, with the number of producers staying fairly constant. Sounds like a sure-fire way to make money in wine.
If however, you are more cautious, and think that the foreign market will grow slowly with constant corrections, and that culturally the new millionaires will not develop a passion for wine, then the current high futures and release prices of IGW will make you a wine bear.
WineInvestor.com firmly believes in the first scenario.
In addition there is a small number of new IGW wineries coming onto the market, where the rates of return are higher due to the higher risk. Who knows which current hot winery will have the staying power to become the next Latour? An excellent example of this is Petrus, which surprisingly has only emerged as IGW since 1961. If you had realized the potential of Petrus in that year you could have bought a bottle for $10. Today a well provenanced bottle of 1961 Petrus sells for $7,000/bottle, a total return of 69,873% or an annualized return of 15.67%.
We have just been through the circus of the 2005 Bordeaux futures with first growths available as futures available in 2008 at $650/bottle. WineInvestor.com is bullish on the wine market, but we think there are better values available than the 2005 first growths. You can currently buy a bottle of Chateau Margaux for $650/bottle. It will happen, but it is going to be many years before you can rack up a good return, with this starting price. In the meantime there is more potential in the super-seconds, where the price is lower and we think will make a much better 2005 investment. A great example of this is the 2005 Leoville-Barton (RP – 94-96+), available at $90/bottle.